Waiting for Oil Price Breakout – WTI Levels

Crude Oil Technical Forecast: WTI Weekly Trading Levels

Oil prices are attempting to score a fifth consecutive weekly advance, with WTI trading just below technical resistance at 115. While the broader outlook remains tilted to the upside, the immediate focus is on a breakout of a multi-month range just above uptrend support. It’s the updated targets and invalidation levels that count on the oil price weekly chart. Review my last Strategy Webinar for a detailed analysis of this technical crude oil price setup and more.

Crude Oil Price Chart – Weekly WTI

Chart prepared by Michel Boutrostechnical strategist; Crude Oil (WTI) on Tradingview

Remarks: In my last Crude Oil Technical Forecast we noted that WTI was wrapping up, “just above the 50% retracement of the December advance at 95.91– we are on the lookout for a breakout in the coming weeks as this range tightens. More than two weeks later, the range has indeed tightened with a rise in prices towards resistance last week to 2011 high / 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from March to 114.80-115.47. Initial weekly support is now raised to the 61.8% retracement of the April rally at 101.55.

At the end of the month, the focus will be on a breakout of the indicative 101.55-115.47 range. A break higher/close above would be needed to mark the resumption of the broader uptrend towards the close of the 2008 week high at 129.29 and the closing record / 2008 at 145.29-146.73. A break below the week Support would threaten a larger correction with such a scenario keeping the focus on 85.61-88.01– wider bullish invalidation now brought to its threshold.

At the end of the line : Oil prices remain consolidating here just below confluent resistance at last week’s high. From a trading perspective, a good area to raise protective stop-losses should be capped at 101.55 IF price indeed heads higher on this stretch with a break/close above 115.47 needed to power the next higher stage. Watch the weekly close here and stay nimble ahead of the long holiday weekend/end of the month.

For a full analysis of Michael’s trading strategy, see his Fundamentals of Technical Analysis Series on Bbuild a Jrading Sstrategy

Crude Oil Traders Sentiment – WTI Price Chart

Crude Oil Traders Sentiment - WTI Price Chart - CL Retail Positioning - USOil Technical Outlook

  • A summary of IG Customer Sentiment shows traders are net-short on Crude Oil – the ratio stands at -1.37 (42.18% of traders are long) – generally bullishreading
  • Long positions are0.34% more than yesterday and 2.53% less than last week
  • Short positions are1.15% less than yesterday and 19.47% more than last week
  • We generally take a contrarian view of crowd sentiment, and the fact that traders are net short suggests that crude oil prices may continue to rise. Traders are less net-short than yesterday but more net-short since last week. The combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us another mixed oil trading bias of a feeling point of view.

Active Weekly Technical Charts

— Written by Michel BoutrosTechnical Strategist at DailyFX

To follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

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