USD/INR continues to attack higher highs as the uptrend of the Forex pair remains firmly within its upper price range.
USD/INR has kept its bullish momentum intact over the past month of trading. After hitting record highs in April, some traders may have believed that the Forex pair had become overbought and the USD would regain some of its value against the Indian Rupee; This does not happen.
Instead, the past few weeks have seen new highs hit by USD/INR. Yes, the pair has reversed slightly from its highs of around 77.9000 which were hit on the 16the and 20e of May, but the current value at the time of writing, near 77.6060, is still a relatively short distance from these higher level ratios.
Speculators who dare to enter USD/INR with positions should understand that a complex puzzle needs to be solved. The US Federal Reserve will hold another interest rate meeting on the 14the and 15e June, and it is almost certain that another 0.50% increase will be added to the current borrowing rate. While this number has likely already been traded against USD/INR by financial institutions, what is unknown is what the US central bank will say its outlook for further rate hikes will be this summer in July and August .
Technical traders may not want to consider the above regarding the Federal Reserve, but it may be wise to at least know when to expect the volatility that decision making and statements will inflict on the USD/ INR. While moving near all-time highs, USD/INR may look overbought and in the long run, it may turn out to be the case. However, day traders who want to hold a position for just a day or two – or even just a few hours – don’t have the luxury or the need to consider what the price of USD/INR will be at this time of year. next.
The momentum has been on the upside and the overriding question for speculators looking for short-term bets is when will a downside reversal occur, or will the upside simply continue? Although it might have been tempting to say that the 77.0000 level would prove to be a stopgap zone for USD/INR in May and a downward reversal would occur, it did not. not proven to be correct. The 78.0000 junction is clearly within earshot and given the volatility expected to occur in the second week of June due to the US Federal Reserve lurking in the shadows, traders should plan ahead. more volatility.
USD/INR Outlook for June 2022
The speculative price range for USD/INR is 76.7300 to 78.3500
Short-term speculators should expect the current USD/INR price range to continue producing fireworks. However, fireworks can only be featured with sudden bursts of energy after further consolidation. The last week of trading has produced a rather narrow range and this may prevail as institutional traders become more cautious in the coming week. If USD/INR stumbles into the 77.4500 area in the near term, this could prove to be a good opportunity to seek upside with buy bets. Speculators should expect choppy conditions to persist over the next two weeks.
USD/INR is likely to break through its current range, but if a stronger buying push seeps into the Forex market for USD, the currency pair could suddenly start challenging the 78.0000 area. in June. While USD/INR at a price of 78.1000 may seem too high, the Forex market does not care about an individual’s “feelings”. A move higher around these ratios could be the result of speculative bets from major institutions, who believe the US central bank will remain bullish and say they want to raise interest rates not just in June, but also in the summer. .