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Waller’s comments in Frankfurt
Adam’s button
Monday 05/30/2022 | 14:58 GMT-0
05/30/2022 | 14:58 GMT-0
- Politics should be above neutral by the end of the year
- I’m not taking 50 basis points off the table until inflation approaches the Fed’s 2% target
- Balance sheet reduction equivalent to some 25 basis point hikes
- I am optimistic that the strong labor market can support higher rates
- I don’t know how soon the supply chain issues will subside
- Inflation is “alarming”
- Longer-term inflation expectations have reached a level consistent with inflation
Inflation
Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate at which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general price level where a given currency is effectively buying less than it has in previous periods. In terms of valuation of strength or currencies, and by extension foreign currencies, inflation or its measures are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the global creation of money. This money is measured by the level of the total money supply of a specific currency, for example the US dollar, which is constantly increasing. However, an increase in the money supply does not necessarily mean that there is inflation. What leads to inflation is a faster increase in the money supply relative to the wealth produced (measured with GDP). This thus generates demand pressure on a supply that is not increasing at the same rate. The consumer price index then increases, generating inflation. How Does Inflation Affect Forex? The level of inflation has a direct impact on the exchange rate between two currencies on several levels. This includes purchasing power parity, which attempts to compare the different purchasing power of each country according to the general level of prices. By doing so, it helps to determine the country with the most expensive cost of living. The currency with the higher inflation rate consequently loses value and depreciates, while the currency with the lower inflation rate appreciates in the forex market. Interest rates are also impacted. Inflation rates that are too high push interest rates up, which has the effect of depreciating the currency on the exchange. Conversely, too low inflation (or deflation) pushes interest rates down, which has the effect of appreciating the currency on the foreign exchange market.
Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate at which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general price level where a given currency is effectively buying less than it has in previous periods. In terms of valuation of strength or currencies, and by extension foreign currencies, inflation or its measures are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the global creation of money. This money is measured by the level of the total money supply of a specific currency, for example the US dollar, which is constantly increasing. However, an increase in the money supply does not necessarily mean that there is inflation. What leads to inflation is a faster increase in the money supply relative to the wealth produced (measured with GDP). This thus generates demand pressure on a supply that is not increasing at the same rate. The consumer price index then increases, generating inflation. How Does Inflation Affect Forex? The level of inflation has a direct impact on the exchange rate between two currencies on several levels. This includes purchasing power parity, which attempts to compare the different purchasing power of each country according to the general level of prices. By doing so, it helps to determine the country with the most expensive cost of living. The currency with the higher inflation rate consequently loses value and depreciates, while the currency with the lower inflation rate appreciates in the forex market. Interest rates are also impacted. Inflation rates that are too high push interest rates up, which has the effect of depreciating the currency on the exchange. Conversely, too low inflation (or deflation) pushes interest rates down, which has the effect of appreciating the currency on the foreign exchange market.
Read this term a little above 2%
- I don’t expect the decline in GDP in the first quarter to be repeated
It’s hawkish stuff with talk of “several” 50 basis point hikes from the 50/50/25/25 baseline endorsed by other Fed officials. That said, Waller is a hawk so it’s not entirely surprising.
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